The main reason Afghan violence is down 15 percent this year is because of the damage to the Taliban. Some 80 percent of civilian combat/terror deaths are the result of Taliban action. The same with casualties to Afghan security forces and foreign troops is Taliban related. Thus if you want to reduce violence, you have to reduce Taliban capabilities. The Taliban are betting on the withdrawal of foreign troops after 2014 to rescue them from this death spiral. While foreign aid is supposed to continue paying for the 300,000 Afghan troops and police after 2014, the Taliban believe they can bribe or intimidate the security forces into inactivity and allow another Taliban takeover of the country.