NATO has agreed to turn over all security responsibilities to Afghan forces by 2015. It’s uncertain if the national security forces can maintain the peace throughout the country. That’s because national governments in Afghanistan do not succeed at maintaining law and order throughout the country. The current government has also failed to disarm regional warlords, including drug gangs and the Taliban. Without Western air support, the local warlords will be better able to resist control from the national government. The worst case is a resumption of civil war, which has been common in Afghanistan for thousands of years. The drug gangs and Taliban urge their supporters (about ten percent of the population) to encourage media opposition and demonstrations against continued cooperation with foreigners (especially India and NATO). Foreigners are growing weary of persuading Afghans to get their act together. Too many Afghans prefer the old school way to fighting, stealing and, in general, acting against their own interests. Bad habits are hard to break.
Russia and Iran are increasingly angry at the lack of effort by Afghanistan to curb the flow of opium and heroin out of the country. Russia and Iran see themselves as major victims of this drug trade, and have millions of drug addicts each to prove it. Pakistan is also a victim of this, but is less vocal in its criticism. That’s because Pakistan sees the Afghan drug gangs as a tool in helping Pakistan gain more control over Afghanistan. Moreover, many Pakistanis make a lot of money supplying the Afghan drug gangs with essential supplies (to refine the opium into heroin) and in transporting the heroin to the port of Karachi, where most Afghan heroin is shipped to foreign markets.